On Landslides, Not Stevie Nicks Related
A lot can happen between now and November, and if the first 6 months of 2020 are any indication, if it can go sideways it will.
Just look at those headlines:
CNN: “Donald Trump is facing the possibility of a landslide loss”
Newsweek: “Trump’s dire week of polling show him heading for landslide loss”
Washington Examiner: “Democrats whisper: Biden landslide
National Journal: Prepare for Biden landslide
Nate Silver: “A Biden landslide is possible”
The Hill: “Biden could defeat Trump by an FDR-like landslide — here’s how”
And then there are these whispers going around the interwebs:
Our friend Luis Mendez breaks down the numbers, history, and election modeling of what is going on with President Trump for us — and the news at the moment for the president is all bad — but comes to the same conclusion I have at the moment:
Anybody worth their salt can also admit to the fact that since I last wrote about this race in April, the President’s chances have only gotten worse and a blue wave is now in play as much as is a Trump squeaker. The white heat of the summer campaign has lead to a pro-change and anti-incumbent environment that I haven’t personally seen in a presidential cycle since 2008 and that was an open seat election.
For myself I can’t believe that in this polarized an era that Biden’s current landslide margins will hold…But I do believe Biden remains, and will probably still remain the next time I sit down and look at this race, the likely winner.
If you think the 73 years of book we have on Donald Trump tells you he is going to bow out of the race and be tagged as the first president since Johnson to decline a re-election bid, your dealer is hooking you up with the really good stuff. It’s a nonsensical train of logic that the guy with so much ego he can’t stand to lose is going to quit and make that assault even worse. Better to lose and do what the Trump history tells us he will do, blame everything and anything else, than to do the one thing there will be no excuse for.
As for the landslide talk, let us qualify the term a bit. Nobody in this environment is getting into the 80s and 90s like Roosevelt, Johnson, and Reagan managed. Anything more than 5 point difference is going to be headlined as a landslide victory by the winner. The “shot someone on 5th Avenue” contingent of the president’s supporters that is somewhere between 30%-40% will ensure that doesn’t happen. Could Biden win by close to or just above double digits? Possible. Could Trump lose by 4 million votes and still squeak out an Electoral College win? Yep.
Biden’s campaign is one right now of inertia. President Trump has had about anything that can go wrong do so, some things of his own making and some out of his control. Team Biden’s best move is to just stay out of the way. That will work till about the end of August, but then Joe is going to have to change gears. How effective his campaign does that will likely be the difference in the campaign.
We know what Trump will do and be. The question is what is the country going to be in November. By then we will be three months into the great school experiment of 2020 that is going to upset nearly every adult’s life in America in some way, shape, or fashion, along with an economy that still has very choppy water coming as the ripples of Covid continue to make it’s way across the fruited plain. Then there is the very real threat that with America listless in leadership and utterly absorbed in internal matters one or more of the world’s bad actors decides to take advantage.
A lot can happen between now and November, and if the first 6 months of 2020 are any indication, if it can go sideways it will. So easy on the landslide talk, at least till after Labor Day and we see who is dealing with what going to the polls this fall.